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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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