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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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