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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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