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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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