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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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