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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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