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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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