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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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