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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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