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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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