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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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