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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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