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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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