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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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