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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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