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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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