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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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