We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
|
|
|
Showing 151 to 155 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
