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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
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