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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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