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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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