We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
|
|
|
Showing 141 to 145 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
