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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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