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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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