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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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