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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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