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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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