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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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