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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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