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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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