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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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