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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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