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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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