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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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