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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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