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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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