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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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