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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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