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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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