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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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