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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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