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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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