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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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