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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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