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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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