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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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Showing 216 to 220 news of total 6871 |
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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