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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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