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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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