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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
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Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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