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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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