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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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