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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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