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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
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THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
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Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
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