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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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