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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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