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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
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Monday, 19 February 24
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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