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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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