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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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