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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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