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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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