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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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